Dominantes Narrativ
Geopolitical Shock
Konfidenz basierend auf GDELT-Artikeldichte (bge-m3)
20%
Phase 1 — Emergence
Dominant Polarity
Stark bearish
Archetypes Aktiv
8 / 15
Artikel Gesamt
2654
Verlauf — letzte 1 Wochen
Narrative Density Trend (Top-3 Archetypes)
Narrativ-Horizonte
Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten & Zeithorizonte
1
Emergence
Emergence
2
Amplification
Amplification
3
Dominance
Dominance
4
Exhaustion
Exhaustion
5
Displacement
Displacement
Sofort — 1–2 Wochen
Geopolitical Shock
Dominant mit 19.6% Density-Score.
Top-Signal: Risk On (18.1%).
Taktisch — 4–8 Wochen
Transition möglich
Geopolitical Shock: 38% ·
Risk On: 27% ·
Defence Rearmament: 12% ·
Strukturell — 3–6 Monate
GREAT_ROTATION + FISCAL_DOMINANCE + HAWKISH
Strukturell aktive Overlay-Narrative mit Phase 2–3.
4-Wochen-Horizont
Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten
Geopolitical Shock
38%
Risk On
27%
Defence Rearmament
12%
Monetary Regime Change
12%
Recession
12%
Aktuelle Verteilung
Regime-Wahrscheinlichkeiten (Density-Scores)
Alle Archetypes
Archetype-Status (sortiert nach Density-Score)
| Archetype | Achse | Density | Phase | Polarity | Artikel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Shock | Overlay |
19.6%
|
1 — Emergence | Stark bearish | 250 |
| Risk On | Overlay |
18.1%
|
1 — Emergence | Neutral | 0 |
| Defence Rearmament | Overlay |
7.7%
|
1 — Emergence | Neutral | 250 |
| Monetary Regime Change | Overlay |
7.5%
|
1 — Emergence | Neutral | 46 |
| Recession | Regime |
7.0%
|
1 — Emergence | Neutral | 250 |
| Ai Scrutiny | Overlay |
5.7%
|
1 — Emergence | Neutral | 0 |
| Stagflation | Regime |
5.6%
|
1 — Emergence | Stark bullish | 183 |
| Ai Capex Hype | Overlay |
5.5%
|
1 — Emergence | Neutral | 250 |
| Great Rotation | Overlay |
4.8%
|
5 — Displacement | Neutral | 250 |
| Fiscal Dominance | Overlay |
4.0%
|
5 — Displacement | Stark bullish | 250 |
| Hawkish | Overlay |
3.3%
|
5 — Displacement | Neutral | 231 |
| Dovish Pivot | Overlay |
3.2%
|
5 — Displacement | Neutral | 250 |
| Recovery | Regime |
3.1%
|
5 — Displacement | Neutral | 194 |
| Risk Off | Overlay |
2.7%
|
5 — Displacement | Neutral | 250 |
| Soft Landing | Regime |
2.4%
|
5 — Displacement | Neutral | 0 |
FRED Daten
Marktpreise & Narrative-Divergenzen
10Y Treasury
4.15%
Kurve 2s/10s
0.59%
Breakeven 10Y
2.35%
VIX
29.49
Öl WTI
$71.13
Narrative-Markt-Divergenzen
⚠️ GEOPOLITICAL_SHOCK dominant (19.6%) aber Öl WTI nur $71 — kein Ölschock im Marktpreis
⚠️ Narrativ-Widerspruch: GEOPOLITICAL_SHOCK (19.6%) und RISK_ON (18.1%) gleichzeitig dominant — Markt ignoriert Risiko oder Narrativ-Transition läuft
✅ GEOPOLITICAL_SHOCK (19.6%) durch VIX 29.5 bestätigt — Nervosität konsistent mit Narrativ
✅ Fed easing (3.64%) wirkt als Puffer gegen GEOPOLITICAL_SHOCK-Narrativ (19.6%) — erklärt RISK_ON-Koexistenz